The Cone of Silence

How far off was polling for each state in the 2020 election? (Trump VS Biden)

Texas: Trump VS Biden

  • Trump margin of victory: Underestimated by 4.5%
  • Biden support: Overestimated by 0.1%
  • Trump support: Underestimated by 4.4%

Source: RCP polling for Texas 2020 Trump VS Biden

Montana: Trump VS Biden

  • Trump margin of victory: Underestimated by 8.025%
  • Biden support: Overestimated by 2.75%
  • Trump support: Underestimated by 5.275%

Source: RCP polling for Montana 2020 Trump VS Biden

Wisconsin: Trump VS Biden

  • Biden margin of victory: Overestimated by 6%
  • Biden support: Overestimated by 1.4%
  • Trump support: Underestimated by 4.6%

Source: RCP Wisconsin polling for 2020 Trump VS Biden

North Carolina

  • Trump margin of victory: Underestimated 1.1%
  • Biden support: Underestimated by 1.1%
  • Trump support: Underestimated by 2.2%

Source: RCP North Carolina polling for 2020 Trump VS Biden

Florida

  • Trump margin of victory: Underestimated by 4.2%
  • Biden support: Correct
  • Trump support: Underestimated by 4.2%

Source: RCP Florida polling for 2020 Trump VS Biden

West Virginia

  • Trump margin of victory: Underestimated by 21.76%
  • Bidden support: Overestimated by 8.73%
  • Trump support: Underestimated by 13.03%

Source: RCP West Virginia polling for 2020 Trump VS Biden

Michigan

  • Biden margin of victory: Overestimated by 1.4%
  • Biden support: Underestimated by 0.6%
  • Trump support: Underestimated by 2%

Source: RCP Michigan polling for 2020 Trump VS Biden

Ohio

  • Trump margin of victory: Underestimated by 7.2%
  • Biden support: Overestimated by 1.1%
  • Trump support: Underestimated by 6.1%

Source: RCP Ohio polling for 2020 Trump VS Biden

New York

  • Biden margin of victory: Overestimated by 3.84%
  • Biden support: Underestimated by 2.03%
  • Trump support: Underestimated by 5.87%

Source: RCP New York polling for 2020 Trump VS Biden

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